Welcome to the 2014 edition of Pick 6: A Packers blog. I've cleaned up the original page to eliminate entries from past seasons. The goal this year is to simplify the concept and provide six stream of conciousness observations per week on the previous game, impact on the upcoming week, and the overall state of the Packers/NFL.
During the preseason, posts will be biweekly, taking into account both games and any nuggets from camp as the roster comes together. Once the season begins, the post should be up within 24 hours of the final gun.
Without further ado, here are six thoughts on the Packers' first three weeks of camp and two games against the Titans and Rams.
1. Offensive line - After two games, I can confidently say that not only has J.C. Tretter locked himself in as the starting center, but is already better than any center the Packers have rostered since Scott Wells. There have been no communication breakdowns or mishandled snaps through two games, and I've been consistently impressed with how Tretter finishes blocks. Though he doesn't possess the size or brute strength of his rookie challenger, Corey Lindsey, he's currently a more complete player and has a full season in the Packers off season program coming off the injury.
I expect the Packers to keep seven linemen - the five entrenched starters, plus Lindsey (as the lone backup center) and Derek Sherrod (as the swing guard/tackle, with Barclay on IR). The latter looked good in the sloppy, natural grass atmosphere in Nashville but struggled immensely yesterday on a faster track. Here's to hoping that the loss of Barclay doesn't have to play a factor at all this season.
2. Safety - The Packers' achilles heel last year was the back half of the secondary, so it's not surprising to see a complete overhaul at the position. Word out of camp is the player making the most impact plays is third year pro Sean Richardson. Though his spot on the depth chart may not be near the top, expect Dom Capers to create packages that allow Richardson to play downhill close to the line of scrimmage. My expectation is that Morgan Burnett and Micah Hyde start at safety in base 3-4, but we'll see more and more of rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix as we work into the first few weeks into the season, sliding Hyde down to nickel or dime slot CB.
It's easy to see why many scouts had Clinton-Dix ranked as the best safety in the draft. Outside of one error where he attempted to lower his shoulder into Dexter McCluster against the Titans and failed to bring him down, allowing extra yardage, the rookie has looked comfortable and been more assignment sure than M.D. Jennings or Jerron McMillian were coming out of camp last season. The impact plays will come with time.
3. Tight End - One of the most hotly contested position battles going into camp has not disappointed. The biggest impression has come courtesy of rookie Richard Rodgers, whose size, great hands and early contributions to the blocking game have ensured that he will make an impact this year. The most notable play I've seen from Rodgers so far is finishing an excellent block to clear space on the James Starks TD run to cap the first drive against the Titans.
It's impossible to consider any of the three competitors a true front runner as they all possess different body styles and skill sets to contribute to the offense. In addition to Rodgers, the Packers have Brandon Bostick, who (for lack of a better description) is the most "Finley-like" of the three and will stretch teams vertically up the seam. Andrew Quarless remains an average blocker and a steady if unspectacular receiver. Expect all three to play a role in the offense, but ultimate volume will be decided by who stands out over the next few weeks and into the early part of the season.
4. Offensive Pace - Yesterday gave the world its first glimpse at the 2014 iteration of Mike McCarthy's offense. The early indications are that (with a little luck on the injury front) we may see the perfect storm between a creative offensive-minded head coach, a talented, all-world quarterback, and a GM with a knack for continuously finding talented offensive skill position players.
The area I'd like to focus on in this article is the pace we saw during the first two drives of yesterday's game, which can only be described as breakneck. I listened to the first quarter and a half on the radio and noticed the crisp efficiency with which the Packers moved from the blow of the whistle on one play to the snap of the next. This was confirmed when watching the footage of those drives later in the evening - the local network didn't even have time to incorporate replays of the previous play. The ultimate result was a 12 play, 86 yard drive that took just 5:22 off the clock.
As an aside, the combination of the continuity between McCarthy and Rodgers, the evolution of Lacy as an every down back, and the versatility of the WR/TE corps means you'll likely see a lot less subbing per drive from the Packers, if they have their way. When James Starks and DuJuan Harris enter the game to spell Lacy, or the Packers choose to move the ball with 2 TE instead of 3 WR, expect it to be done for blocks of plays or entire drives with limited or no huddling to keep defensive substitutions to a minimum. It's a competitive advantage we've seen other teams (namely the Patriots and the old Manning-led Colts teams) use to great effect, and the Packers hope to have finally found the right mix to make the strategy work in Green Bay.
Don't be surprised if the 2014 offense outperforms the 2011 version in scoring efficiency, if not overall output.
5. Defensive creativity - Defensive coordinators around the league come into every season promising "multiplicity" on defense. After all, coming in and promising to be more "vanilla" and eliminate creativity does little to instill confidence in the rest of the coaching staff, front office or fan base. For the 2014 Packers, however, it's likely time for Dom Capers to pull out every trick remaining in the book. Each season since the Super Bowl victory in 2010 has contained immense disappointment on the defensive side of the ball, sometimes to record breaking proportions.
Even in the preseason where defenses are notoriously vanilla, we've already seen hints that Capers will do his due diligence to create more profitable one on one match ups for his most talented defenders. In the first two games with limited snaps for the first team, we've seen Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers each line up on both the left and right side of the formation, depending on whether the Packers are using base or nickel alignment. We've seen Matthews line up at middle linebacker and both Peppers and Mike Neal line up in a three point stance as down linemen. We've seen Micah Hyde occupy the old "joker" role that was once manned by Charles Woodson, perhaps to keep Hyde on the field at the same time as the talented rookie, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
The hope is that with some reinforcement in the secondary and the addition of a former blue chip pass rusher in the twilight of his career can tip the scales in the Packers' favor. That will start with Capers' ability to put these players in the position to succeed.
If the 2014 Packers defense can't rectify the deficiencies of the past three, it's likely that Capers will be out of excuses.
6. Flags - This point is more league wide than Packers specific, but it's an important one. Every major rule change dating back to the late 1990's has been made with the goal of creating more points. The casual fan does not relish the 13-7 defensive struggle, and it doesn't do much to boost the fantasy football market which has taken on a life of its own. My concern is the 2014 emphasis on illegal contact and hands to the face penalties may take things far enough that it hinders the enjoyment of the game.
When it becomes more effective on a third and long to engage a defender and draw a flag (netting an automatic first down) rather than execute a play, the spirit of the rule (and by association the integrity of the game) have been compromised. My hope is that the emphasis is present in the preseason to make defenses aware, but the referees will allow the game to be played a little more loosely once the season begins. If the patterns we've seen early on in this preseason continue into the regular season, expect five hour long broadcasts and plenty of yellow laundry on the field every Sunday.
That should cover things for this week. I'll have one more of these posted as we work through the final two preseason games and cement the final 53 man roster, then will get into a week by week routine of posting after every game. I hope you enjoyed it, and please feel free to share any comments!
-Dan
